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OneFPLToday's confirmed FPL price changes plus tonight's predicted risers and fallers, updated through the day from live FPL transfer data.
FPL player prices move once per day, overnight, driven by how many managers transfer a player in versus out. When net transfers cross a hidden threshold tied to the player's ownership, the price rises or falls by 0.1m. Only one move per player is possible in a day, and the update usually lands between about 01:30 and 02:30 UK time. OneFPL tracks the pressure building through the day and predicts which players are closest to a change, so you can act before the overnight update rather than after it.
The Risers today and Fallers today counts above are confirmed, official price changes already applied by FPL. The Risers and Fallers tabs are OneFPL predictions for the next overnight update, ranked by transfer momentum. Confirmed data comes straight from the official FPL API; predictions are OneFPL's model estimating what happens next. We keep the two clearly separated so you always know which is which.
Each prediction carries a pressure percentage and a confidence tier. The percentage is how close a player is to the estimated threshold for a move; at 100% they are marked Ready and most likely to change that night. Because the exact FPL threshold is never published, treat this as pressure towards a change, not a certainty. The confidence tier reflects how strong and stable that pressure is.
Your selling price is not always what a player is worth now. When a player's price rises after you buy them, FPL gives you back only half of the profit, rounded down to the nearest 0.1m. Buy at 7.0m, see the price climb to 7.4m, and your selling price is 7.2m. Price falls are passed on in full. This is why chasing small rises rarely pays off and why timing a sale before a predicted fall protects your team value.
Team value is a slow, secondary edge. You build it by buying players early in a rise cycle that you genuinely want for their points, not by trading purely for price. A higher team value gives you a little more budget flexibility over a season, but a single good captaincy call or a well-timed transfer is worth far more than months of 0.1m gains. Prioritise points and form first, then use price timing to make a move you were making anyway a fraction cheaper.
OneFPL runs a self-tuning model that tracks net transfers for every player against the moving threshold needed for a rise or fall, and adjusts for factors that distort the raw counts, such as Wildcard and Free Hit transfers and player flags. Every prediction is graded against the actual overnight result, and the model's parameters are recalibrated from those outcomes. The Model tab above shows the live, auto-tuned parameters.
We only ever report accuracy from real, scored predictions, with the sample size and a 14-day measurement window shown alongside it in the Model tab. Accuracy is defined as the share of graded predictions where the predicted direction matched the actual overnight change.
Accuracy reporting begins once enough 2026/27 predictions have been scored. Until then we show no accuracy figure rather than an invented one.
Price is one input, not a strategy. Line your moves up in the FPL transfer planner, check availability in Team News, compare options in the Player Lab, and see what other managers are doing in Transfer Trends. For the full mechanics, read how FPL price changes work.
FPL prices update once per day, overnight, usually between about 01:30 and 02:30 UK time. Only one change per player can happen in a day, and a player rises or falls in 0.1m steps based on net transfers since the last update.
No public tool knows the exact FPL threshold, so predictions are a probability, not a guarantee. OneFPL shows a confidence tier with every call and publishes real scored accuracy in the Model tab once enough 2026/27 predictions have been graded. We never show an invented accuracy figure.
The percentage is how close a player is to the estimated threshold for a change, based on net transfers. At 100% the player is 'Ready' and most likely to move that night. It is pressure towards a change, not a probability that the change is correct.
Only if you were already going to make the move. Beating a 0.1m rise grows team value slightly, but points and form matter far more, and selling later can trigger a 50% sell-on fee on the profit. Never chase a rise on a player you do not actually want.
When a player rises after you buy them, you keep only half of the profit (rounded down to the nearest 0.1m). So if you buy at 7.0m and the price rises to 7.4m, your selling price is 7.2m. Falls are passed on in full, so your selling price never drops below what you paid unless the player's price falls below your purchase price.