Updated 17 September 2026. Manchester City lead both the current clean-sheet and attacking projections for Gameweek 5, while Newcastle, Nottingham Forest, Arsenal and Everton also rate strongly in at least one direction.
These projections are useful for choosing teams to target.
They should not replace player-level checks for minutes and role.
Use Player Lab after identifying the best team environment.
Best GW5 clean-sheet environments
Fantasy Football Scout's current projection model has:
| Rank | Team | Current clean-sheet projection | GW5 opponent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 48% | Sunderland (H) |
| 2 | Newcastle | Above 40% | Hull (H) |
| 3= | Nottingham Forest | 39% | Coventry (H) |
| 3= | Arsenal | 39% | Brighton (A) |
| Top five | Everton | Strong | Ipswich (H) |
Treat these as one model's estimates, not guaranteed probabilities.
1. Manchester City defence
City host Sunderland.
That gives Gvardiol and Donnarumma the strongest current clean-sheet environment.
Gvardiol is especially attractive because he also has attacking upside.
The final decision still needs City's Thursday minutes and team news.
Check Team News before the deadline.
Latest FPL news
2. Newcastle defence — fixture good, form concern
Newcastle host Hull and rank above 40% in the current clean-sheet projections.
But they just conceded four at Leeds.
That is a useful reminder:
fixture model and recent defensive performance can disagree.
A Newcastle defender should be selected for:
- secure start;
- attacking or DefCon routes;
- plus the Hull fixture;
rather than clean-sheet probability alone.
3. Nottingham Forest
Forest host Coventry.
That creates one of the week's stronger combinations of:
- clean-sheet potential;
- home fixture;
- lower-price routes.
If selecting a Forest defender, use Player Lab to separate secure starters from rotation risks.
4. Arsenal
Arsenal travel to Brighton.
Normally that looks less appealing than City at home.
But Arsenal's defensive performance is strong enough that the model still places them in the top group.
The complication is Brighton's attack.
Pascal Groß and Maxim De Cuyper just scored in the cup comeback at Manchester United.
Arsenal defenders remain strong holds, but a clean sheet should not be treated as automatic.
5. Everton
Everton host Ipswich.
That creates a good environment for Pickford/Tarkowski-type routes.
The appeal is broader because Everton also project well enough in attack to support Barry or another attacker.
Which teams are projected to score the most?
Current external attacking projections place Manchester City clearly first at around 2.44 projected goals.
Newcastle are the only other side above two in the cited model.
Liverpool are around 1.76, while Forest and Everton also rank strongly.
| Team | GW5 attacking read |
|---|---|
| Man City | Clear No.1 |
| Newcastle | Above two projected goals |
| Nottingham Forest | Strong home environment |
| Liverpool | Around 1.76 projected goals |
| Everton | Strong home opportunity |
| Man Utd / Arsenal / Spurs / Chelsea | All remain above-average environments |
What this means for Haaland
City topping the attacking projection supports Haaland captaincy.
That does not automatically mean Triple Captain.
The chip decision should also consider:
- minutes;
- midweek workload;
- future Double Gameweeks.
Use Captains.
Newcastle attackers
Hull at home is a strong Newcastle attacking spot.
That is why Wissa and other Newcastle attackers remain relevant even after the 4-1 Leeds defeat.
One poor result does not erase a favourable next matchup.
Forest attackers
Forest are one of the most interesting GW5 teams because the fixture supports both sides of the pitch.
Gibbs-White is also one of the biggest transfer-ins this week.
That makes Forest particularly relevant for:
- starting-XI decisions;
- differentials;
- Wildcard structures.
Everton attack
Everton host Ipswich and project well.
That strengthens:
- Barry;
- Dewsbury-Hall;
- Ndiaye;
depending on confirmed roles.
Liverpool
Liverpool travel to Bournemouth.
The attack remains strong, but midweek minutes complicate individual selection.
Gakpo played a full cup match; Isak was unused.
That makes expected minutes as important as team-goal projection.
Read the updated Gakpo FPL article.
How to use clean-sheet odds correctly
Do not buy a defender because his team has a 40% clean-sheet chance.
Use this order:
- start security;
- clean-sheet environment;
- attacking/DefCon routes;
- future fixtures;
- price.
The team probability identifies the environment.
The player still needs to be a good FPL asset.
OneFPL verdict
The clearest GW5 environments are:
Defence: City first, then Newcastle/Forest/Arsenal/Everton.
Attack: City first, Newcastle second, then Forest/Liverpool/Everton among the stronger options.
Use projections to choose the right clubs, then Player Lab and Team News to choose the right player.
